A methodological guide to understanding what VAERS can and cannot establish.
"VAERS shows thousands of deaths and serious injuries caused by vaccines. The government is hiding the truth about vaccine deaths."
1. Temporal association only: VAERS accepts any report of an event that occurs after vaccination. It cannot establish causation. A death after vaccination is not evidence the vaccine caused the death.
2. Unverified reports: Anyone can submit a VAERS report for any reason. Reports are not verified. Unverified reports cannot be used to establish vaccine safety.
3. Background rates: Deaths and adverse events occur in unvaccinated populations at predictable rates. Without comparing to expected rates, raw VAERS numbers are meaningless.
4. CDC analysis: CDC and FDA actively monitor VAERS for safety signals. Rigorous epidemiological studies consistently find vaccines safe.
Confidence Level: HIGH
VAERS reports cannot establish causation. Raw VAERS numbers represent temporal associations, not evidence of harm. Proper analysis requires comparing observed rates to expected background rates.